Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Soho, Lunchtime Today. The Recession Has Officially Begun.



For those of you tuning in from outside the UK, Greggs is a notoriously inexpensive sandwich retailer.

But you know what? I think the midday moneysavers in this picture are over-reacting, because I don't believe downturns actually affect individuals that much.

Sure, they affect companies. Agencies will have less business, and so are forced to fire people. But assuming you don't lose your job, that means you have roughly the same amount of work as before, doesn't it?

87 comments:

Anonymous said...

?

i think the phrase 'assuming you don't lose your job' is key there.

Anonymous said...

But assuming you do lose your job, like thousands in this already tiny industry are about to, you might well need to go Greggs. And put the wife on the game. And sell your arse down the 'Dilly. And wank for coins. And suck off tramps for the nutrients in their seed.

It's going to be a harsh breeze, brothers, a harsh breeze.

Anonymous said...

The fat bitch at the back doesn't work in advertising. No one would let her in.

Anonymous said...

she looks like a client.

Anonymous said...

Recessions are based on rumour and bollocks half the time, just as the boom times are.

And threads like this just fulfill that.

Companies also use it as an excuse to behave like arseholes.

Alan Wolk said...

Same amount of money, yes.
Same amount of work? No. Agencies react via hiring freezes and so you may well find yourself doing the work of two people.

Anonymous said...

The queue is nothing to do with a recession.
The simple fact is Greggs steak bakes are a thing of wonder.
My record is two and a sausage roll.
Have any readers beaten this?

Anonymous said...

Like I said so many times on this blog, people tend to look at details and forget the global view. This so called economic crisis is just a major financial rearrangement. Ok, you don't like economy, you don't like optimistic thinking either. No problem. But you're still inconsitent with science when you think we're all going to experience starvation in the years to come. Resources don't disappear. They transform and/or switch places. We're going to find them somewhere else, that's all, takes a little getting used to. Do you mind if Russia ranks higher than the US 5 years from now? I don't. Maybe it would be educative.
So, ...less astrology, more chemistry (including sex).

(And stay away from Greggs, obesity is anyway worse than eating less than usual.)

Tom Morton said...

You tend to spend money on non-essentials because you assume there's a paycheck coming at the end of the month, and the month after that. When that confidence goes, non-essential spending goes as well. That's why the new car market has shrunk by a quarter, even though the overall economy has only shrunk by half a per cent.

Anonymous said...

@3.01pm
methinks you're confusing "recession" with "falling markets". Not the same thing. You are right that falling markets are caused by city boys getting their knickers in a twist and other tiresome "bollocks". But "recessions" are the result of that hysteria on what is referred to as the "real economy". ie it is a measurable shrinkage with real and nasty effects.

jpandtem@googlemail.com said...

this is a stupid reaction by clients anyway. clever companies ought to be spending more money on advertising now in order to get greater market share and retain loyal customers when the 'recession' fog lifts. as for greggs, they may be famous for cheap sandwiches, but they're also infamous for being the only baker that sees replacing 'sausage' for 'pepper' in their sausage rolls, as a good idea.

Anonymous said...

I've lost my job. But i can't eat steak bakes. They repeat on me something awful.

Anonymous said...

I'm losing my job too. But I ain't going to start eating at greggs.

Anonymous said...

Fuck this. Lunar just put up the Russell Brand Jonathan Ross answerphone thing. You feel as grubby as Greggs just by listening to it.

Anonymous said...

You've underestimated the appeal of the Gregg's Chicken Bake

Anonymous said...

Finally, some commentary from Scamp on the economic downturn. I was hoping for a bit more really.

Was anyone around for the last one?

Anonymous said...

Aw. Creatives trying to talk about business. Sweet.

Anonymous said...

oh god, I can almost see a smiley chicken face singing "If you're going to San Francisco".

sarah bell said...

You're right, 3:07, everyone is missing the point. Once you've tasted Greggs' cheese, baked bean and sausage melt (don't judge it) you can never go back.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

you can tell the recession isn't really biting yet. There's a fag butt in the gutter near the feet of the man with the boots bag, it's got at least 5 drags left in it.

Anonymous said...

hilarious
those long winter afternoons must fly by

Anonymous said...

Re 3.07

I have beaten this, i've had a chicken pasty, vege pasty and a cornish pasty which are pretty big.

Has anyone tried the Mexican Chicken Lattice??

Mmmmmmmmmmmm good!

Anonymous said...

It's that guy from Phoenix Nights who's getting people in the door at Greggs, not the Credit Crunch.

FishNChimps said...

"I don't believe downturns actually affect individuals that much"

Blimey, don't tell my missus. With five mouths to feed we've joined Lidl Britain. Mind you, one thing I'm keeping to myself is the secret cash I'm ploughing into cheap shares at the moment.

Anonymous said...

If we were all as well paid as you scamp, then maybe we wouldn't think it affected individuals either.

I had an elecricity bill the other day that has doubled in price since the last qurter bill i got.

Greggs looks surprisingly tastey all of a sudden...

f said...

"The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's GDP".

Stop f*****g panicking you weirdos. I'm with you Scampy. I haven't lost my job. And i'm eating out more than ever. I'm fine. Anyone else NOT noticed this economy thing AT ALL?

Sell! Sell! said...

Mmmmm, I could just murder a Greggs sausage roll right now.

Anonymous said...

I was a poor student once. I'm now a poor copywriter, so not much has changed. One of those things that remain the same, is never being poor nor hungry enough to try briggs.

Even their morning croissants were disgraceful, how can you ruin a croissant is beyond me. A french bakery nearby had chicken pannini's for two quid, beat them by a mile.

Anonymous said...

f, you're absolutely right. Besides the ones losing their jobs no one else feels anything serious. Personally, I feel no change at all. As far as it concerns the ones losing their jobs, guys, really, don't worry, approximately two months from now employers will sadly realise that it was so damn stupid to start firing beyond reason and will have to invest more than expected in HR departments, suddenly finding out that a business cannot keep running without employees -- amazing grace. Employers are using this crisis as a pretext from a certain point. They have to fire 3 employees, they fire 10 -- it's a good moment, they will all hold hands and cry together. Also it is a method of discouraging salary raise requests. "Be happy I didn't fire you! Look what happened to your mates!" DON'T just play along, my dear ones. Society still means a huge number of individuals trying to get along, live and work together. If there's a real crisis, it will be solved by coordinated masses, not by coordinators alone, keep that in mind. Less Guiness Book, more history.

kiki said...

I'm a bit over this "recession" I went to the shops at the weekend and had to queue at every shop I went into. There were people everywhere, all spending lots of money.

Obviously the savings they are all making by going to Greggs are being spent in Debenhams.

Anonymous said...

kiki, it's natural: prices high, shopping "libidos" high.

Anonymous said...

Recessions are great. We can go back to school! Sure you'll loose your job, but it's a crappy time to be working anyway. You'll have to pick up the slack, no free beers/toothpaste/fruit/parties. Why bother?

Now I can go back to university, weather the storm in lectures, exams, booze, all supported by the govt, then appear a few years later 'better' qualified, get a shit-kickin job, and never have to go to greggs again.

George said...

F - 6.04pm.
I think that we are going to feel the effects. Right now, most people appear to be ignoring it, and hoping it will just go away (myself included), but the next 2 years are going to be pretty harsh. Or so I'm told (and not by the Daily Mail either).

writer said...

Won't happen in Australia because Kevin Rudd is currently in the process of bailing everyone out and last week he rang George Bush to tell him what to do. Tell Gordon to ring Kev and he'll explain how to fix Old Blighty, if you still call it that.

Anonymous said...

The flow-on effect of the financial crisis for the average person holds about as much water as the flow-on effect for wealth distribution, unless of course you're a cashed up banker with a hedged portfolio - in which case, suck it buddy.

Anonymous said...

Brilliant, Scamp, just brilliant. Now get back to writing the same amount of award winners you were hired to write before the financial collapse. Idiot.

Anonymous said...

you seem to be forgetting about the rising cost of raw materials which means that the average family is shelling out more on food and other essentials. Oh, and a little thing called oil which not only makes the cost of fuel rise but also anything else which requires petrochemicals like washing powder. Also, dont you think lack of available credit for your house or car could have a personal effect on people's lives? Or the effect that banks not lending will have on the cashflow of small businesses? We all rely on credit in some way therefore we are all screwed and can't sit in our ivory towers looking down on people in Greggs!

Anonymous said...

2:48, you sound like a hysterical wife. Besides the fact that you write on this man's blog and call him "idiot". You'd probably do the same if he invited you to dinner at his place. Or is this heroic attitude just courtesy of the anonyimity? (You know our IPs are visible, don't you?) It takes one clik to change settings and and request a Google/Blogger ID for comments. I understand you don't feel very comfortable around here. Well, good riddance. Displaying a cut-throat attitude is anything but convincing. Less LCDs, more mirrors.

Anonymous said...

Also, to all you worry-more-than-your-brain-can-take guys and negativity addicts, here's a little gift for you, start worrying for SUCH things that have nothing to do with the economy stumbling the way it does: http://www.pulitzer.org/works/2007,Feature+Photography

Anonymous said...

If I can sit in my ivory tower looking down at Argos and anon 10.40 and his mum, I can certainly look down at Greggs. I wouldn't even drive my Cayenne past a Greggs for fear it would catch something. And that's also why I've changed my mind about hiring anon 10.40's mum (previous post) for that cleaning position.

Anonymous said...

anon 8.22
This blog is an entrenched part of my daily routine but I too felt a little uncomfortable at the 'I'm alright Jack' tone to Scamp's post. Also, could you refrain from ending each post with 'less this, more that.' It's not catchphrase.

Anonymous said...

9:37 Oh, so you have a problem with Scamp feeling alright (and probably with anyone else feeling alright). I see, you're not so worried about your not-so-bright situation, but you're very worried about others not feeling the same. It's highly human, I must say. Sun probably still rises because of you.

Less mirrors, more windows. (This was a dedication, I have to let you know. This is where you should become aggressive, in order to stay foreseeable.)

Scamp said...

The "I'm all right Jack" comment stung a little. Please don't think I'm smug or selfish. I already have some very good friends who have lost their jobs, and I am gutted for them.

However, several young creatives have asked "how will the recession affect me?"

And my answer, counter-factual though it may sound, remains the same: assuming you don't lose your job, it won't.

Though you might be waiting a while for a pay rise.

Anonymous said...

hi scamp, i'm wondering if you could do a separate post on what life was like last time there was a recession, was it, 12 years ago? it would be really interesting (if you can remember that far back that is)

Anonymous said...

9.51
Less wit, more twat.
Scamp - fair play fella.

Anonymous said...

recessions don't effect individuals? huh?

that's a declaration that can only be stated by someone holding an upper management, staff job.

FREELANCERS get it in the ass when recessions hit. fact. and despite what many might think: we're people too!

Anonymous said...

I'm a freelancer and my life has never been brighter. Agencies fire more people than necessary and when a great project comes in they find themselves unable to handle it with the very few employees left. So they switch to outsourcing. It is the same for employees and freelancers: the best ones stay/are contracted, the others are fired/wait forever for a project.

Anonymous said...

9:58 -- Do I REALLY have such a great power over you??? Never could have dreamed that far. I think I now understand Hitler.

Anonymous said...

@10:18

i like the sound of that.
now how about some hints as to which agencies are looking for freelancers?

Anonymous said...

10:32 What I can advise you is to look outside the UK, in case you're a UK freelancer. I mostly recommend US and Australian agencies. Long live the internet.

Anonymous said...

10.25
no you're just mildly annoying
but i notice that you've obeyed my command and dropped that ridiculous catchphrase

Anonymous said...

10:47 -- Understanding Hitler includes giving you the impression that you're oh so special. I'm glad it worked.

And now that I don't want to lose you, here's how I make sure you come back: Less SF, more psychology (the basics would do).

Anonymous said...

Here's a few reminiscences from 1991; creative departments shrinking by 30% (it was more in Australia), doing spec work because there are no live briefs ( that was the case at BMP where I was on placement. They're called DDB now for any Fallon juniors reading). People losing houses. That kind of thing. You might think it won't happen again, but I know of one major auto manufacturer that is paying workers to stay at home because they can't stockpile any more cars. Do you reckon they might spend a bit less on advertising next spring?

Anonymous said...

"Do you reckon they might spend a bit less on advertising next spring?"

It depends on how the crisis will be attenuated up to that moment. As we all now, both the US and the EU are doing their best to establish strategies in this direction. I think that as compared to what happened back in the 90s the international market has become more mature and more flexible and this makes me believe the current crisis will not last too much and will not have such devastating effects.

Anonymous said...

I lost my job in '91 and on the way home I got bummed on the Northern Line. I hope none of you have to go through that.

Anonymous said...

For those of you who were praising the new Barclaycard ad yesterday: it's rubbish. Awful music, hardly changes, goes on too long, thicko analogy, dreadul 'funny' line at the end, dull.

Apart from that, the cast that guy who's already in loads of ads (eg: he gets Crunchy Nut Cornflakes out of the late night garage).

Pisssssss Poooooooor.

Sarah said...

I can't even afford greggs...

*breaks down with the shame of it all*

Anonymous said...

It's a digital marvel. All this interweb talk about Greggs, made me go down to that very one and purchase a steak thingie. It's bloody lovely, if a bit hot.
Scamp, you've done a bit of digital for your book! You're 360!

Anonymous said...

We are as much to blame as anyone else. Persuading people to buy stuff they didn't need with money they didn't have. 53,000 homes have been repossessed so far this year. Each one is a seperate heartbreaking tradegy. I think airily dismissing the recession from the comfort of a well paid, if essentially irrelevant, job is not the conduct of a gentlemean.

Anonymous said...

Actually it is the conduct of a gentlemean. Ya meany. It is not however the conduct of a gentleman.

AP of CRAP said...

placements mean greggs is a treat :) they make a mean sausage roll...

i'm glad they don't have the calorie count on the packets... marketing ploy, its so cheap you actually don't want to know what's in it

neil christie said...

I don't agree, scamp. I'm no expert but here's how I believe the recession is likely to affect people who work in agencies:

- Clients, who are seeing their profits collapse, will cut marketing spend and cut agency fees. Agencies will be forced to respond by making redundancies, instigating pay freezes and stopping hiring freelancers.
- Consumers will be cautious. They will postpone spending on big ticket items like cars and holidays and they will look for value purchases. This means that the type of work agencies are asked to do will become more tactical, more promotional, smaller budget.
- Clients will care less about 'creativity' and more about ROI. 2009 will not be a bumper year for awards. If that's important to you.
- Some unscrupulous clients will exploit agency fears in order to get their way. (Give us a new camapaign by Monday or we'll put the business up for pitch.)
- Some agencies will go under. Especially small, underfunded
start-ups and old, traditional, highly leveraged agencies.
- There will be new business around as clients, either through desperation, or through the desire to cut costs, review agency relationships.
- The new business environment will be fierce and desperate. Expect to work long hours and weekends for no extra pay to pitch accounts that your agency would have turned down a year ago.
- And, based on my memories of last time round, internal politics and in-fighting will be savage, as frightened, selfish people try to protect their positions at struggling agencies.

I think everyone who works in this business will be affected, one way or another. Welcome to Optimism.

Anonymous said...

recession... another fabricated excuse to adjust quarterly results by sacking people, cutting costs and implement unpopular procedures.

PH said...

@Neil
Terrifying but true.
Maybe many creatives will go overseas too until things get better?

Anonymous said...

Is it true that BBDO have closed Lunar?

Anonymous said...

oh, but why? Blogspot is free of charge.

Anonymous said...

i meant the agency not the blog.

Anonymous said...

It was too unexpected, that's why the blog was my first thought. Even worse if it's the agency!

Anonymous said...

Neil Chrisite,

You have valid points, but that is only for ATL and purely DM agencies.

DIGITAL will survive and continue to grow as it is measureable and has seen continued quarterly growth.

ATL guys, get into Digital - it's true and you know it!

Anonymous said...

Don't speak too soon smuglet:

Financial uncertainty is taking its toll on U.K. digital ad spend, says the Q2 Bellwether report from the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA) and Markit Economics, released today.

The report's findings suggest that online marketing, SEM and SEO budget growth in the U.K. in Q2 2008 was at its slowest since 2003, with digital spending up just 6 percent in Q2 compared with a 21 percent rise in Q1 over the previous quarter.

Anonymous said...

21% rise is better than recess in ATL spend - plus digital shops all over have lots of budget to hire.

Not smug, just observational fact. Clients are always gonna have a marketing budget, but they are going to put more and more of this into digital rather than misc print and ambient executions. Even a 3 week TV ad run is some what of a waste now - what goes online stays FOREVER. FACT!

Anonymous said...

3.23
fair point
two in return
1) see scamp's post on digital graveyards
2) aren't ATL agencies simply evolving? purely 'digital' agencies are already something of an anachronism no?

Anonymous said...

Digital is for fucking losers. Just look at those new business charts on the back of Campaign . The digi boys are scrabbling around for a couple of million here and there, while the ATL boys are taking on tens of millions. No one gives half a fuck about what happens on the internet, including this blog.

Anonymous said...

Digital is for fucking losers. Just look at those new business charts on the back of Campaign . The digi boys are scrabbling around for a couple of million here and there, while the ATL boys are taking on tens of millions. No one gives half a fuck about what happens on the internet, including this blog.

Anonymous said...

Aww how sweet, he pressed the button twice.

Anonymous said...

too much digital can kill you. Anyway, I'll call him/her Double-Click from now on.

Anonymous said...

RE:3:43 (AKA Double- Clicker)

Digital is for losers?

You obviously enjoy the internet - bet you are on the internet more than you watch TV.

HA! Nailed - you just got nailed you high school drop out!!!!

Tens of millions eh? You obviously don't do much TV and quite clearly demonstrated you are a Student - should be working on your book rather than spending time in the digital world.

Anonymous said...

neil christie:

is it merely a coincidence you run an agency? see previous posts about company bosses jumping on the recession bandwagon to justify pay freezes and redundancies. while preserving their own bonuses....

hence as one guy mentioned, you'll probably be using more freelancers next year because the 'essential cutbacks' you make aren't essential after all.

Bentos said...

Double-Click dufus:

"..by 2010, Millenials/Gen Y-ers will outnumber Babyboomers. And they spent an average of 16 hours online with 96% of them on a social network program.

.....

Sure, there will still be print and tv but as far as engaging goes, they will increasingly become irrelevant when compared to the internet."

http://adsareboring.blogspot.com/2008/07/fk-me-social-media.html

Anonymous said...

3:07 PM

don't want to worry you old bean, but when the likes of old scamp here and others on a packet are wandering round the job market with a hundred others, you blaggers at digital shops will be replaced my real marketing men.

also, recession is the time when start ups begin, picking at the bones of you digital guys.

if anyone should be worried, it's you.

the smoke and mirrors are about to collapse.

Anonymous said...

re 6.15 pm

What are 'my real marketing men'?

Sounds like a boring version of Mad Men.

Anonymous said...

5:54 PM

and as for you....

...do you honestly believe that the future is the internet? it's not much of a leap forward from the bulletin boards 15 years ago?

take a look at modern living room expo and the BT investment predictions.

half the reason to bring HDTV into the living room wasn't to sell blu-ray discs, it was to get the pc and tv to become one entity.

the internet will, for most, be a way to interact with programming and adverts that appear on your tv. on demand and pay per view.

hell, in ten years time you won't even have a pc, you'll have high speed access to any program/data you need, via your tv.

the one thing that won't change is peoples desire for entertaining content not 6k banner ads.

Anonymous said...

6:23 PM

i know it's two keys over, but the m is a b.

fat fingers and iphones don't mix.

Bentos said...

6:24, I think it's clear the future is a mix of multi-channel broadcast, with a massive punch of Sky+ style on-demand and t'internet. Essentially that doesn't matter though. More importantly the future is far more fundamentally interactive than the 'broadcasting to the nation' monologue of trad TV advertising.

Later: eggs, how to suck 'em.

Anonymous said...

To all the jokes who believe the recession has no impact on them or their lives. Just look at the amount of comments left here.

The recession is all consuming. I remember '92. Fucking scary.

PS I also did some of the Greggs ads.

Anonymous said...

EVERYONES GOT A GREGGS TOOTH